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  3. Currency Views for the Week 31 Oct – 04 Nov 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 31 Oct – 04 Nov 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

There seems some relief as the market finds some selling interest around 83. It might take one more week for the final picture to evolve. Till then we can assume that 83.20 as Intermediary top. If the pair manages to hold below 83.30 for another week, and a daily close below 81.10 could see the pair drift towards 81.50. A daily close above 83.20 could trigger one more sharp move towards 84.10 and then 84.60. Expected range 81.50-83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. There exists one stray possibility that the pair makes one quick attempt of 81.10 on stop triggers.

In the Aug last weekly blog (29 Aug-03 Sep), the concerns of USDINR moving higher has been highlighted.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 81.50. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.26.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 81.95. The pair made a bullish candle in the past week and has convincingly crossed the downward sloping trend line starting from Apr 21. Above 80.20, the pair is likely to stay at elevated levels. Downside risk seems limited till it closes below 80.40. Expected to consolidate between 80.40-83.10. Any breach on either side would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. Daily close above 83.10 could trigger a sharp move towards 84.50.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 80.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 83.10 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has recovered major losses made in August & September and the current exchange rate of GBPINR is 95.33 which is a tad above the falling trend line starting April 22. The weekly candle is a bullish positive candle. As expected the GBPINR currency pair saw the peak of 95.80 on break of 94.40. While there may be attempts for selling on every spike higher, we may not see such sharp fall. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 93.40 & 97.70. Daily close above 95.70 would see quick move to 97.70.

It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 97.00 levels by selling GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 93.40. Any close outside the range of 93.40-97.70 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the range seems shifted lower to 21.90-22.60 following correction in USD across the board. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 40 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.90 or closer to 22.00. A daily close below 22,35 is required to see a down move till 21.95.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1670. The currency pair failed the crucial test for the capacity to penetrate and close above the break down level of 2.2000. The currency pair got heavily sold-off from 2.1960 and is back to 2.1670. The support at 2.1500 is crucial and is expected to hold. It remains to be seen if the pair can regain the lost ground for an up move towards 2.2000. The present scenario appears to be a consolidation in a range of 2.1500- 2.2000.

Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1550 or lower if seen. Only a close above 2.2000 can help the pair to see further upside. The remittances are to be hedged accordingly.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR seem to have come back on track with the base at the long term support of 59.30 levels holding well. The range appears to have shifted higher to 60.30-61.50. We have been witnessing alternate week of bullish and bearish candle suggesting interest on either side. Current Exchange rate of CADINR foreign currency pair is 60.46. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.30-61.50. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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