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  3. Forex pair update for the week 30 Oct to 03 Nov 2023

Forex pair update for the week 30 Oct to 03 Nov 2023

USD/INR

The currency pair spent another week in the familiar narrow range of 82.97-83.31. As the base gradually shifting higher closer to 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75 and that the Central Bank would hold 83.30 for long. That is a risk. The sharp moves happen when no one expects. Expect the range of 82.90-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 83.00-83.30.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 22. Appears to be saved this time?

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.90 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 83.30.

EUR/INR

Current Exchange rate of EURINR currency pair is 88.10. The Currency pair consolidates above the support at 87.50 and attempted to break the top of the descending channel at 88.20. The Pair continues to face tuff resistance at 88.90-89.20 zone. Till such time the support at 87.50 holds we may see gradual shift towards higher levels. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 87.50 and may face resistance around 89.10. A daily close above 88.60 required for further gains. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 87.10 & 89.20. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on any slide towards 87.10 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is making continuous efforts to overcome the selling spree. The currency pair made a Doji candle. The currency pair is moving in a sharp descending channel. It is attempting to break the channel. Though currently it is facing resistance, eventually it is expected to break for higher levels. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.10. The currency pair is expected to move in an outer range of 99.70 & 103.10. Narrower range would be 100.45-102.10. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 102.10 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline towards 100.45. Any close outside the range of 99.70-103.10 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.64 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.45 and 22.70, It appears that, for now, the risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.70 is saved. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.45.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3087. The currency pair finally finds the base at 2.2310 and posted a strong green candle. A close above 2.2770 for the third consecutive week could be treated as a reversal of trend. Every decline is likely to see buying interest. The currency pair is expected to take support at 2.2580 and attempt higher levels in the coming weeks. We can expect a consolidation between 2.2750 & 2.3270.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2750 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3270.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 59.95. After failed attempts to break 61.35, the currency pair continues to be under selling pressure and made another bearish candle with lower high and lower low. This suggests that the pair is caught in a range. The pair is moving in a descending channel with support at 59.30 and resistance at 60.60. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.30-60.60.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.30 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.41. The MYRINR currency pair made a positive candle after being under selling pressure for the past 11 weeks. For now, 17.65 is acting as resistance and the support at 17.20 seems to create good buying interest. Hence, the currency pair may attempt quick gains in the coming weeks. A daily close above 17.65 would help in higher levels. Expected range for the week is 17.25-17.65. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.25. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 17.65 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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