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  3. Currency Views for the Week 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 30 Jan – 03 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair took support at 80.90 and made an attempt to scale higher of 81.76 levels, it got sold-off again. The support at 80.90 is a tuff nut to crack and may consolidate in the range of 80.90 & 82.05 with choppy moves on either side. A close above 81.75 can be treated as a reversal for re-attempt of 82.55. Only a break below 80.90 can see the pair drift towards 80.50 and then to 80.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.90 and 82.05. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The currency pair trying to attempt the break-down levels in the reactive move
  • The correlation between DXY and USDINR is not currently active
  • though the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 101-105
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 80.90 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.51.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.57. In the earlier five weeks, the currency pair was facing strong resistance around 88.70. During the past week it actually penetrated and posted a high of 89.20. There seem to be fair chances for this pair to attempt 2021 high of 90.70. A daily close above 88.70 could trigger another wave of appreciation towards 89/70. A break below 87.40 on closing basis could make the pair drift lower towards 86.50. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 87.40-90.70. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 87.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 90.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The currency pair GBPINR managed to find support at 100 levels and started gaining. Now it is looking to retest the recent peak again. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.04. The currency pair may find resistance at 101.70. The pair is expected to consolidate between 100.10 & 102.70. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 100.10 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 102.50 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 100.10-102.70 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current currency exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.20. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The pair has breached an upward sloping trend line starting Jan 22. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.90 and 22.40. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.90. A daily close below 21,90 is expected to make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4843. The currency pair made another high of 2.4997. There could be selling pressure around 2.5000. There are chances that the pair clears this resistance. Expect a consolidation between 2.4650-2.5050. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Only a close below 2.4650 would be considered as reversal.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4650 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.5050.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.22. The pair made a smart recovery to close higher. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.75-61.70.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 19.18. As expected the MYRINR currency pair broke the crucial resistance at 18.80 and made a high of 19.30. The formation is a flag and the break signifies appreciation towards 19.50. However, the daily charts suggest a reversal toward 18.85 before resuming the uptrend again. Expected range is 18.85-19.80. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.85 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 19.50 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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