Currency Views for the Week 29 Aug – 02 Sep 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair is not giving up the 79.50 levels which is a cause of concern and we are getting closer to the crucial 80.35 level. Are we heading for another trouble? Any daily close above 80.35 would trigger one more sharp move towards 81.50. Only a close below 78.50 could negate this. Still there is some hope for a prolonged consolidation between 79.10 & 80.35 as we have seen during April-May 22. Expected range for the week is 79.65-80.10. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 79.70. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 79.97. Expected range for the week 78.80-81.40. A daily close above 81.40 could quickly take the pair to 82.30.

EUR/INR

EUR INR currency pair seem to have been strangled in the range with continuous lowering of the range The bias seems to favour downside. Has been constantly declining from April top of 90.92. Though the indicators are turning positive, it observed that the upside appears to be capped at-81.40. Current EURINR exchange rate is 79.68. We may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the outwards remittances buying EUR currency against INR below 79 on any sharp decline. Selling EUR against INR currency received through Inward remittances may be done on any spike towards 81.50 or higher. Expected range for the week 78.80-81.40. A daily close above 81.40 could quickly take the pair to 82.30.

GBP/INR

GBP INR currency pair got sold-off all through the week. For the past four months GBPINR currency pair has been moving in the range of 93.60 and 97.60. Last week the closing had been at the lower end of the range which is a cause of concern. With crucial support at 94.10 giving-up the pair is likely to attempt 93 levels. Ideal to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on upticks above 95 by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances. Current Rate is GBP= INR 94.95. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 93.10- 95.80. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.55-22.15 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.55.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2134. During the previous week the Pair has made whipsaw move within the range of 2.2000 and 2,2300. It is noted that there is interest on both sides and may continue to move in the same range. The hedges for remittances can be made within this range. Any breach would require re assessment of risk.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR broke the long term resistance of 61.10 and moved higher a couple of weeks back. However, it could not retain the momentum for a bigger gain. The pair is unable to penetrate the crucial resistance at 62.40 and got sold-off. Expected range for the week 61.00-62.10. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline towards closer to 61.00 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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