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  3. Forex pair update for the week 28 Aug to 01 Sep 2023

Forex pair update for the week 28 Aug to 01 Sep 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a dramatic shift of stance. Aided by the buoyant mood after India achieved a successful soft landing on the moon, the market witnessed a sharp sell-off towards 82.35. It appeared as if the markets were betting on another failed mission or the previous trigger past 83.30 was a false break. However, the buying interest continues as the market is still not sure of a decline below 82.20. It is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Expect the range of 82.20-82.90 to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 82.20-82.90.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • A decisive week ahead as the monthly closing candle could give further clues for future direction and the target.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.20 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.62.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 89.10. The Currency pair tried attempting the ascending channel at 90.80. However, it could not make further gains and hence came under continued selling pressure. The currency pair posted a bearish candle. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 89.20 and may face resistance around 91.00. Below 89.20 we can see another round of selling towards 88.40. It would be difficult for the pair to expect higher levels till it closes above 91.30. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 89.20 & 91.20. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances at current levels or on any slide towards 88.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 91.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair again lost the opportunity to hold on the gains and in fact it breached the ascending channel support at 104.60 and closed the week at 103.93. Only a daily close above 105 can help the pair to gain further. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 103.93. The foreign currency pair is expected to move in a range of 102.70 & 105.20. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 105.20 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 102.70 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 102.70-105.20 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.51. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.35 and 22.70, The earlier resistance at 22.65-70 region gets activated again after the fall during the past week. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.35.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3603. The pair seem attempted breaking the key resistance at 2.3750. After three weeks of decline the pair made a positive candle and expected to consolidate at higher levels to keep up the gains. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.3370 and 2.3870. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3370 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3870.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.66. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.50. The pair broke the upward channel with support at 61.35 and came under strong selling pressure. Now that the key level of 61.35 would act as resistance. The pair made fourth weekly negative candle. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.50-61.50.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.80. As in the case of most of the currency pairs the MYRINR currency pair also broke the support of lower end of the ascending channel. The currency pair is under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. Expected range for the week is 17.60-17.95. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.60. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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