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  3. Forex pair update for the week 27 to 31st March 2023

Forex pair update for the week 27 to 31st March 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw an unexpected selling towards 82.05 which gave opportunity for the importers to hedge partly and the pair later closed at 82.31. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. This month being the year end it appears less likely that we may see lower levels. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
  • Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    Will this range be protected for one more time? We may get further clues by the end of this week
    The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.70 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.26.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.76. During the previous week, the currency pair broke the 87.80 resistance zone and reached a high of 90.20. However, it got sold off and settled in the consolidation zone once again between 87.80 & 88.80. The weekly candle is showing bullish bias. Expected range is 87.80-89.80. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 87.80 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair broke the downward sloping trend channel after nearly 14 weeks. It made an attempt towards 102 and reversed to close at 100.69. The pair managed to cross 100 levels and formed but formed a bearish candle and also closed near the top of the channel. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.06. The currency pair may find resistance at 102.10 levels. The pair is expected to consolidate between 99.10 & 102.10 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 99.20 levels by buy GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 102 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 99.10 & 102.10 might see the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.41. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The pair had a correction towards 22.34 which is a crucial support. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.20 and 22.75. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.20.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3892. The pull back is met with selling pressure. This week could witness a consolidation phase. Expect the break-out level of 2.3800 to provide good support and we can expect the buying interest on every decline. Expect a consolidation between 2.3775-2.4240. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3775 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4240.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.11. The pair posted a bearish candle. As the pair held the crucial support at 59.20 for 2 weeks, we can expect the foreign currency pair to gain further towards 60.70. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.40-60.70.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 60.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.60. The pair faces resistance at 18.80. Expect the base of 18.20 to hold and favour a consolidation between 18.20-18.85. Any break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.20 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.85 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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