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Currency Views for the Week 26 Sep – 30 Sep 2022-Venkat's Blog


In almost every weekly blog in the past couple of months the risk of sharp move higher has been highlighted when the pair crosses 80.35. It finally happened. What & where next is the question on top of every ones’ mind. Now 80+ becomes a new normal. On any decline closer to 80, we may see buying interest for the unhedged imports. A daily close below 80.95 may give a chance towards 80.35. While the upside is wide open we may see some supply around 81.50 range. Daily close above 81.50 opens the door for next round of sharper move towards 82.75. Expected range 80.25-82.25. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 80.75. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.24.


The bias appears to have reverted back to negative. it was expected that the crucial support at 79.30 to hold. Technically the weekly candle has once again posted a bearish candle. The pair attempted 80.10 and got sold-off. Current EURINR exchange rate is 78.73. The trend is expected to continue with lower bottoms. However, we may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any inward remittances on any bounce towards 80 levels and the outwards remittances by buying EUR currency against INR around 77.90 on any sharp decline. Expected range for the week 77.80-80.40. A daily close above 80.40 could quickly take the pair to 81.30. Similarly, the downside support at 77.90 to be watched for possible breach.


The GBPINR currency pair has come under strong selling pressure and break below the long term support at 91.70 is considered as further weakness. The GBPINR currency pair posted a sharp decline from 91.80 to 88.10 drawing similarity with the sharp fall of April 2020. The scenario is expected to continue and we may be heading towards April 20 lows of 85.40. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances at the current levels or on any upticks towards 90.00 levels by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances on any decline close to 86 levels. Current Rate is GBP= INR 87.62. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 86.70- 90.40. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.


The AED being pegged to USD currency AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.90-22.50 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 50 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.90.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1645. The break down level of 2.2000 would continue to have selling interest and has been a two way move during the past week and closed around the same closing as that of the previous week. The present scenario appears to hold the range of 2.1300- 2.1800. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1500. Only a close above 2.20 can help the pair to see further upside.


The currency pair CAD/INR is close to another long term support at 59.80 levels. A breach below that would see the currency pair drift towards 59.30. The resistance at 61.10 is crucial and the currency pair is likely to be sold-off on any attempt higher till we see a daily close above 61.20. Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 59.70. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 58.90-61.10. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 59.00 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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