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  3. Currency Views for the Week 24 Oct – 28 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 24 Oct – 28 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pressure & direction continues to remain upward and there are no clear indications of a possible reversal yet. The risk of huge break-out has been highlighted in every blog since first week of May 22. The upside is still wide open. Crucial level to watch would be 83.30. If the pair manages to hold below 83.30 for another week, then we may see the pair drift towards 82.10. A daily close above 83.30 could trigger one more sharp move towards 84.10 and then 84.60. Expected range 82.10-83.80. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

In the Aug last weekly blog (29 Aug-03 Sep), the concerns of USDINR moving higher has been highlighted.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 82.10. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.52.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 81.45. The pair made a bullish candle in the past week and closed near the trend line resistance at 81.45. The pair is likely to trigger higher if we see a clear breach and close above this long term trend line. The pattern suggests that there are fair chances of break-out. Downside risk seems limited till it closes below 80.20. Expected range for the week 80.20-83.10. Any breach on either side would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 80.20 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 82.40 on any sharp spike.

GBP/INR

After many weeks the GBPINR pair moved in a very narrow range suggesting an indecisive mood in the market. The GBPINR currency pair has recovered major losses made in August & September and the current exchange rate of GBPINR is 94.00 which is the long term support. The weekly candle is an uncertain one. While the downside risk still exists, we may not see such sharp fall. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 92.40 & 95.70. Daily close above 94.40 would see quick move to 95.70.

It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 95.50 levels by selling GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 92.40. Any close outside the range of 92.40-95.70 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range continues to be as 22.20-22.70 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 40 pips range. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 22.20.A daily close below 22,35 would signal a down move till 21.95.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1690. The currency pair failed the crucial test for the capacity to hold on the breakdown level of 2.2000. Against the expectations the currency pair got heavily sold-off and is back to 2.1500. The past week saw 2.1500 providing decent support. It remains to be seen if the pair can regain the lost ground for an up move towards 2.2000. It would be safe to assume that any attempt to spike higher would attract selling interest.

The present scenario appears to drift lower and consolidate in a range of 2.1500- 2.2000. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1550 or lower if seen. Only a close above 2.2000 can help the pair to see further upside.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR seem to have come back on track with the base at the long term support of 59.30 levels holding well. A daily close above 60.90 could see the pair move quickly to 61.50. We have been witnessing alternate week of bullish and bearish candle suggesting interest on either side. The pair could be caught in the range of 59.50-61.50 with sharp moves on either side.

Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 60.50. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.70-61.50. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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