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  3. Forex pair update for the week 24 to 28 July 2023

Forex pair update for the week 24 to 28 July 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a narrow range of 81.91-82.20. After having seen the 79 to 83 moves during Sep 22, the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports which has been highlighted in previous blogs. However, when the DXY has breached crucial 100 mark, there are no reason that the USDINR currency pair holds on to this range. This week is crucial and there are possibilities of lower levels towards 81.55 and then 81.15. If fails then there could be a wait period of another three weeks. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.75 and 82.55. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.

  • The 82.75-83.25 range is continuing to be protected.
  • A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30.
  • Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.75 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.98.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 91.17. The Currency pair came under selling pressure after it attempted a peak of 92.46. The currency pair posted a bearish candle. This may be a reactive move after the strong move of previous week. The Momentum is expected to remain intact and the pair is expected to trend higher closer to 93 levels. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 90.50 & 93.50. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 90.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 93.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair completely erased the gains made during the past week and has closed at the lower end of the range and made a strong bearish candle. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 105.38. The pair is well supported at the previous top of 105.25. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 104.25 & 107.75. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 107.75 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 104.25 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 105.25-108.85 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.32. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.25 and 22.45. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.25. A daily close below 22,25 would make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.90.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3797. The pair has continued moving higher and as expected the pair attempted a strong pull back to test 2.4307 and closed at 2.3707. Expected range for the week is 2.3525-2.4150. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3525 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4150.

CAD/INR

The current foreign exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.98. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.60. It made another red candle. The pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 61.27 and resistance at 62.87. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.40-62.40.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.40 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

The MYRINR currency pair finds resistance at 18.20. Current exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 17.95. Any retracement will be treated as opportunity to buy. Expected range for the week is 17.80-18.30. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.80. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.30 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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