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  3. Currency Views for the Week 23 Jan – 27 Jan 2023-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 23 Jan – 27 Jan 2023-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair came under continued selling pressure. While the pair attempted to scale higher of 81.88 levels, it got sold-off again. The crucial support at 81.10 also gave up. The momentum is likely to continue and any pull back towards the trend line resistance at 81.80 and 82.20 is likely to see selling pressure. Break below 80.90 can trigger further stops being hit to see the pair drift towards 80.50 and then to 80.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.20 and 81.50. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • Steep trend line broken
  • The correlation between DXY and USDINR is not currently active and any spike in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair
  • though the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 102-105
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 80.20 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 80.97.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 87.90. We Another week of narrow range consolidation with a bearish candle. However, it made a higher high and higher lows The currency pair seem to be hitting the wall around 88.70. A daily close above 88.70 could trigger another wave of appreciation towards 89/50. A break below 87.40 on closing basis could make the pair drift lower towards 86.50. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-89.60. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.60 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

After five weeks of decline the GBPINR currency managed to find support at 99.30 and started gaining. Now it is looking to retest the recent peak again. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 100.36. The currency pair may find resistance at 101.70. The pair is expected to consolidate between 99.50 & 102.70. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 99.50 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 102.50 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 99.50-102.70 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.05. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The foreign currency pair has breached an upward sloping trend line starting Jan 22. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.90 and 22.40. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.90. A daily close below 21,90 is expected to make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4735. The currency pair seem to face selling pressure above 2.4800. Expect a consolidation between 2.4400-2.4900. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Only a close below 2.4400 would be considered as reversal.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4400 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4900.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.72. The pair is back under selling pressure. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.90-61.10.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.00 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.88. MYRINR currency pair seem to have broken the crucial resistance at 18.80. The formation is a flag and the break signifies appreciation towards 19.50. Expected range is 18.50-19.80. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.60 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 19.50 or higher levels if seen

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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