Currency Views for the Week 22 Aug – 26 Aug 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair is not giving up the 79 levels which is a cause of concern and we are getting closer to the crucial 80.35 level. Appears that we are heading for another trouble. Any daily close above 80.35 would trigger one more sharp move towards 81.50. Only a close below 78.50 could negate this. Under such circumstances it might be prudent to hedge commitments towards outward remittances can be covered by buying USD currency against INR on any dip below 79.40. Still there is some hope for a prolonged consolidation between 78.70 & 80.35 as we have seen during April-May 22. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

EUR/INR

EUR INR currency pair seem to have been strangled in the range of 79.80-82.30. The bias seems to favour downside. Has been constantly declining from April top of 90.92. Last week there was decent opportunity for the pair to break the trend and move higher. Though the indicators are turning positive, it is also observed that 82.30 is restricting further upside. We may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the outwards remittances buying EUR currency against INR below 80 on any sharp decline. Selling EUR against INR currency received through Inward remittances may be done on any spike towards 81.50 or higher. A daily close above 82.30 could quickly take the pair to 83.20. Expected range for the week 79.50-81.20.

GBP/INR

GBP INR currency pair got sold-off all through the week. The crucial level of 96.80 seems to be a strong resistance and the major support comes in at around 94.10. Ideal to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on upticks above 96 by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is likely that the pair may attempt 94.10. Good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances. Current Rate is GBP= INR 95.55. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 94.10- 96.80. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

AED currency being pegged to USD; the range is reflected by the move in USDINR currency pair. For now, the range appears to have shifted lower to 21.55-21.85. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.55.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2240. During the previous week the Pair has made an inside candle which is essentially with-in the range of week prior to that. It is noted that there is interest on both sides and may move in a range of 2.2100-2.2450. The hedges for remittances can be made within this range. Any breach would require re assessment of risk.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR broke the long term resistance of 61.10 and moved higher a couple of weeks back. However, it could not retain the momentum for a bigger gain. The pair is unable to penetrate the crucial resistance at 62.40 and got sold-off. Expected range for the week 61.00-62.10. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline towards closer to 61.00 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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