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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 21 to 25 Aug 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 21 to 25 Aug 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw the break of 83 and went on to hit the high of 83.42 and closed at 83.12. The buying interest continues as the market fears breach of 83.50. It is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Now that the markets would be trying to grab anything below 83.00. As expected the potential breach on the upside happened and the spike towards 83.30 and beyond was achieved. Expect the range of 82.80-83.50 to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. This range seem to have been broken and expect the pair to see buying interest on every decline. There is only a marginal hope that still weekly closing is not seen above 83.25.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • A decisive week ahead. Already we are witnessing the levels above the Top of the Triangle/Rectangle and the Oscillators in the weekly charts show indications of higher levels

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.80 or lower if seen. Current currency exchange rate of USD/INR is 83.16.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 90.38. The Currency pair could not breach the 91.30 in the past two weeks and hence came under selling pressure. The ascending channel support at 90.60 got breached and attempted a low of 90.12 and closed at 90.39. The currency pair posted a bearish candle. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 89.80 and may face resistance around 91.20. It would be difficult for the pair to expect higher levels till it closes above 91.30. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 89.80 & 91.20. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 89.80 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 91.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair seems to be turning positive. However, crucial support at 104.50 holds for now. The pair attempted breach of the major hurdle at 106. Once we see a daily close above 106 we may see another attempt of the previous high. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 105.90. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 104.50 & 107.10. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 107.10 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 104.50 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 104.40-107.10 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.64. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.50 and 22.80, as there is a breach of previous resistance at 22.65. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3451. The pair seem to struggle crossing 2.3750. In the past three weeks the pair lost almost all the gains made in the previous three weeks. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.3150 and 2.3750. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3150 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3750.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.40. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.50. The pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 61.35 and resistance at 62.50. Though the pair made third weekly negative candle, the channel support is holding for now. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.35-62.50.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.50 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.90. The currency pair came under selling after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. However, the declines will be treated as opportunity to buy. Expected range for the week is 17.75-18.10. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.90. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.20 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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