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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 20 to 24th March 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 20 to 24th March 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a heavy buying interest as the support at 81.70 was holding for the second week. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. This month being the year end it appears less likely that we may see lower levels. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
  • Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    Will this range be protected for one more time? We may get further clues by the end of this week.
    The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.70 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.52.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.18. The currency pair has come out from the selling spree and back in to the consolidation zone of 87.60 & 88.70. The pair is finding it difficult to breach crucial resistance at 88.70. The weekly candle is showing bullish bias. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. Any breach of the support at 88.70 would see the pair drift towards 89.20.

It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 87.60 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.70 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has been moving in a downward sloping trend channel for the past 14 weeks. After 6 weeks of struggle below 100, the pair managed to cross 100 levels and formed a bullish candle and also closed near the top of the channel. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 100.76. The currency pair may find resistance at 101 levels. continue to be under selling pressure on every spike till we see a daily close above 101. The pair is expected to consolidate between 97.70 & 101.40 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 98.20 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 101.40 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 97.70 & 101.40 might see the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.46. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The foreign currency pair has shown buying interest and has formed a bullish candle. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.20 and 22.75. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.20.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4192. As expected a sharp pull back happened and the pair closed near the top of the range. Expect the break-out level of 2.3800 to provide good support and we can expect the buying interest on every decline. Expect a consolidation between 2.3775-2.4410. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3775 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4410

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.14. The pair posted a bullish candle. As the pair held the crucial support at 59.20 for 2 weeks, we can expect the currency pair to gain further towards 60.70. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.30-60.70.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 60.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buy CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.50. The pair managed to cross the crucial 18.00 from where the pair made a new high of 19.45 and closed around the top. Expect the base of 18.20 to hold and favour a consolidation between 18.20-18.85. Any break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.20 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.85 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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