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Currency Views for the Week 19 Sep – 23 Sep 2022-Venkat's Blog


As expected the pair attempted 79.10 levels and recovered sharply in the next couple of sessions. The pair continues to move in a narrow range of 79.10-80.10 with alternating sharp moves on either side. The risk of sharp move higher remains if the pair closes above 80.35. Only a close below 78.50 could negate this. The downside also seems limited. If we see a few more sessions of failed attempt, we may see sellers emerging which may take the pair to 78.70. Still there is some hope for a prolonged consolidation between 78.80 & 80.35. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 79.10. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 79.68.


The bias appears to be changing and the indicators are turning positive, it observed that the 79.30 seem to provide decent support. Technically the weekly candle, even though a bearish candle it has formed a higher bottom and higher top. The pair attempted 81.20 and got sold-off. Current EURINR exchange rate is 79.80. We may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the outwards remittances buying EUR currency against INR around 79.30 on any sharp decline. Selling EUR against INR currency received through Inward remittances may be done on any spike towards 81.30 or higher.Expected range for the week 78.80-81.40. A daily close above 81.40 could quickly take the pair to 82.30. Similarly, the downside support at 79.30 to be watched for possible breach.


The GBPINR currency pair has come under strong selling pressure and break below the long term support at 91.70 is considered as further weakness. Ideal to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on upticks above 91.80 by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances on any decline close to 90 levels. Current Rate is GBP= INR 90.95. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 89.70- 92.40. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.


The AED being pegged to USD currency AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.50-21.75 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.55.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1630. The break down level of 2.2000 would continue to have selling interest and on the downside 2.1700 also does not seem to provide the required buying interest. The present scenario appears to favour a move towards 2.1400. The outward remittances can be any decline below 2.1500. Only a close above 2.20 can help the pair to see further upside.


The currency pair CAD/INR is close to another long term support at 59.80 levels. A breach below that would see the currency pair drift towards 59.30. The resistance at 61.10 is crucial and the currency pair is likely to be sold-off on any attempt higher till we see a daily close above 61.20.Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 60.10. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.35-61.40. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 59.50 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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