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  3. Currency Views for the Week 19 Dec – 23 Dec 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 19 Dec – 23 Dec 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair moved in a range of 81.37-82.96 during last week. The pair seem to be in a dilemma and un-willing to breach either side. We may see one more week of narrow range of 83.10-82.40. While the monthly candle is still in progress, it appears that the pair may make one more attempt of the trend line resistance at 83.30. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 81.20. We can expect supply around the closer resistance at 83.10. This seems to be another phase where the demand is led by lower crude and other unhedged imports getting covered. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 82.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82.
  • We may not see a runaway in DXY. We have once seen the support at 105 giving-up. There can be relief rallies.
  • Full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair. Hence, the spikes in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10.
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.20 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.70.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 87.51. The pair saw volatile moves. There has been one way move and the EURINR currency pair posted a high of 88.84. Downside risk seems limited till it closes below 85.30. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-89.10. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. The run up has been too sharp and we need to expect the consolidation.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.10 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is gaining for the sixth consecutive week and continued to remain volatile. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 100.40. First time the weekly closing is seen negative. While the currency pair is expected to remain biddish as long as it is above 98.30. The currency pair may find strong resistance at 102.90. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 99.40 & 102.50. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 102.50 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 99.40 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 99.40-102.50 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.51. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.30 and 22.65. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.30. A daily close below 22,15 would make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3718. The currency pair is showing signs of exhaustion after sharp up move. A daily close below 2.3260 would be a sign of temporary pull back towards 2.2830. Expected range for the week is 2.3360-2.3950. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. Only a close below 2.2800 would be considered as reversal.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3360 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3950.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.48. The pair made one more failed attempt to break the barrier at 61.10. A daily close above 61.10 is required for higher levels. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.70-61.10.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.00 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.68. MYRINR currency pair seem to face tuff resistance at 18.80. We can expect a pullback/consolidation at lower range. Expected range for the week is 18.10-18.80. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.10. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.90 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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