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  3. Forex pair update for the week 18 to 22 September 2023

Forex pair update for the week 18 to 22 September 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a narrow range by taking 83 as pivot moved 0.18 on either side. It is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.20. At best we can presume that the range is gradually shifted higher between 82.50 and 83.30. Expect the range of 82.50-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.80 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 82.50-83.30.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 23. Are we in to another such move?
  • We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are in the ninth month. Will is be another 2017 or as usual?

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.75 or lower if seen. Current foreign exchange rate of USD/INR is 83.26.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.94. The Currency pair is attempting to reverse its direction after being under selling pressure for the past 5 weeks. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 88.20 and may face resistance around 90.50. A daily close above 89.50 required for further gains. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 88.20 & 90.40. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances at current levels or on any slide towards 88.35 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 90.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is likely to take support of the ascending channel at 102.55 and attempt the resistance zone of 105.20. Only a daily close above 105 can help the pair to gain further. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 103.19. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 102.50 & 105.20. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 105.20 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline towards 102.50. Any close outside the range of 102.50-105.20 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.68 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.60 and 22.75, The pair runs a risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.75. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.60.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3105. The pair seem to be caught in a narrow range. The pair is moving in descending triangle with support at 2.3030 and resistance at 2.5010. Breach below 2.3030 would see the pair testing the recent lows of 2.2950. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.2950 and 2.3550. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2950 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3550.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.95. As expected the pair took support at 60.70 and reversed the direction. The pair is likely to move to higher levels and any decline is expected to be supported by buying interest. The pair might as well get back in to the original channel if breaches 61.90 which is the ascending channel lower line. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.20-62.70. A daily close below 61.20 will drag the pair towards 60.25.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.71. The MYRINR currency pair is under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. The pair took support at 17.70 for the past 5 weeks. Break below 17.70 would see the pair drift towards 17.40. The current week is crucial for the pair. Only a daily close above 18.00 would help in higher levels. Expected range for the week is 17.60-17.95. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.60. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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