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  3. Currency Views for the Week 17 Oct – 21 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 17 Oct – 21 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The direction continues to remain upward and there are no clear indications of a possible reversal yet. The risk of huge break-out has been highlighted in every blog since first week of May 22. The upside is still wide open. Crucial level to watch would be 82.95. If the pair manages to hold below 83 for another two weeks, then we may see the pair drift towards 81.50. A daily close above 82.95 could trigger one more sharp move towards 83.80 and then 84.60. Expected range 81.50-83.80. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

In the Aug last weekly blog (29 Aug-03 Sep), the concerns of USDINR moving higher has been highlighted.With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 81.50. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.34.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 80.02. The pair did consolidate in the past week. However, the band got lower levels than expected by around 0.70 on either side. We may safely assume that there are interests on both sides. The trend line resistance at 81.40 assumes greater importance. The pair is likely to trigger higher if we see a daily close above 81.40. Till then we can expect a consolidation to continue for the current week as well. Expected range for the week 78.70-81.80. Any breach on either side would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 78.70 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 81.40 on any sharp spike.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has recovered major losses made in September and the current exchange rate of GBPINR is 91.97 which is the long term support. The pair posted a high of 93.66. The weekly candle is an uncertain one. While the downside risk still exists, we may not see such sharp fall. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 90.00 & 94.00. Daily close above 93.70 would see quick move to 94.70. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 94.00 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

It is good to wait for decline towards 90.00 for hedging outward remittances. Any close outside the range of 90.00-94.70 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 22.20-22.70 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 50 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 22.30.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1500. The currency pair failed the crucial test for the capacity to hold on the breakdown level of 2.2000. Against the expectations the currency pair got heavily sold-off and is back to 2.1500. It would be safe to assume that any attempt to spike higher would attract selling interest. The present scenario appears to drift lower and consolidate in a range of 2.1200- 2.1800. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1250. Only a close above 2.2000 can help the pair to see further upside.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR failed to hold on the gains made in the earlier week and back closer to the base at the long term support of 59.30 levels. The support at 58.70 continues to be crucial and we may see sharp decline if this level is breached. Only a daily close above 60.90 could see the pair move quickly to 61.50.

Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 59.30. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 58.30-60.50. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 60.50 or higher and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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