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  3. Forex pair update for the week 16 to 20 October 2023

Forex pair update for the week 16 to 20 October 2023

USD/INR

Past week witnessed repeat of the same narrow range by taking 83.20 as pivot moved 0.10 on either side. As the base gradually shifting higher above 83, the market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.75. Expect the range of 82.90-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 83.00-83.30.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 23. Are we in to another such move?
  • On an analysis of conflicts leading to change in perception of Geo-political risks there may be a scenario to “Let-Go”. The big move in INR from 75.28 to 82.80 happened 3-4 weeks after the start of Russia-Ukraine war. However, there was a deceptive down move prior to the full blown up-move. So, it’s a wait and watch?

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 83.00 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 83.21.

EUR/INR

Current Exchange rate of EURINR currency pair is 87.52. The Currency pair has made a tweezer bottom and a hammer with a confirmation through higher highs and higher lows. There is likely to be buying interest emerging on every decline from here onwards. This reinforces the assumptions noted in the earlier blog that the support at 87.10 and 86.90 are fairly strong and expect to hold for a relief rally towards 89 levels. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 87.00 and may face resistance around 88.90. A daily close above 88.60 required for further gains. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 87.10 & 88.90. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on any slide towards 87.10 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.90 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair made good attempt to fight back. The currency pair made a bearish candle. However, it has made higher highs and higher lows. The currency pair is moving in a sharp descending channel. Last week it made a failed attempt to break higher. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.27. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 100.10 & 103.10. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 103.10 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline below 101.10. Any close outside the range of 101.10-103.10 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.67 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.45 and 22.70, The pair runs a risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.70. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.45.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2976. A close above 2.2770 could be treated as a reversal of trend. The currency pair has made a strong bullish candle. Every decline would be seen as opportunity for buying. The currency pair is expected to take support at 2.2520 and attempt higher levels in the coming weeks. We can expect a consolidation between 2.2520 & 2.2920

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2520 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.2920.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.94. The currency pair has made a bullish candle with higher high and higher low. This suggests that the pair may attempt higher levels in the ensuing weeks. The pair is moving in a descending channel with support at 60.20 and resistance at 61.90. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.30-61.60.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 12.90 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.59. The MYRINR currency pair has started moving in a narrow range which implies that the pair is getting ready for a reversal. For now, 17.70 is acting as resistance and could drift lower towards 17.45. The current week is crucial for the pair. Only a daily close above 17.70 would help in higher levels. Expected range for the week is 17.45-17.70. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.45. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 17.90 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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