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  3. Currency Views for the Week 16 Jan – 20 Jan 2023-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 16 Jan – 20 Jan 2023-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair displayed its characteristic move once again. It holds on to a smaller range for longer time and suddenly slips or triggers higher. The break of 82.45 triggered a technical sell-off which saw further momentum taking the pair to the next major support at 81.10. The momentum is likely to continue and any pull back towards the trend line resistance at 81.70 and 82.20 is likely to see selling pressure. Break below 81.10 can trigger further stops being hit to see the pair drift towards 80.50. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.50 and 81.80. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • Steep trend line broken
  • We may not see a runaway in DXY. There can be relief rallies.
  • The Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 102-105
  • Any spike in DXY need not necessarily impact this pair
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 80.50 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.28.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.01. We saw a narrow range consolidation during the past week. The currency pair seem to be hitting the wall around 88.60. A daily close above 88.60 could trigger another wave of appreciation towards 89/50. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-89.60. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is showing signs of exhaustion and has moved in a narrow range of 98.42-100.35. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 99.37. For the fifth week in a row the weekly closing is seen negative. The currency pair may find strong resistance at 101.30. This could be a consolidation phase in a range of 98.60 & 100.30. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 100.30 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 98.60 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 98.60-100.30 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach. There would be a need of re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.13. AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. The pair has breached an upward sloping trend line starting Han 22. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.90 and 22.40. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.90. A daily close below 22,15 is expected to make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4728. There seems no looking back for the currency pair as it broke the next barrier at 2.4300. Expect a consolidation between 2.4300-2.4900. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Only a close below 2.4200 would be considered as reversal. The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4300 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4900.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.81. The pair could not hold on the gains after hitting the crucial 61.10. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.50-61.20.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.10 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.73. MYRINR currency pair seem to face tuff resistance at 18.90. The pair continues to move in a narrow range of 18.60-18.90. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.60 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.90 or higher levels if seen

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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