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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 15 to 19 May 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 15 to 19 May 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a narrow range of 81.70-82.23. as an exception the last weekly candle shows signs of reversal. Only a close below 81.70 favors further lower levels. At least for the moment, it appears that the Pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.80 and 82.40. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 81.80-82.40 will be protected.The pair has a tendency to make surprise moves when most in the market do not expect.

A few more observations:

  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • The foreign currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83.
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    This range is continuing to be protected.
    Deeper correction is long overdue.
    The target for this move is 80.10 provided 81.70 is taken out on a closing basis.
    Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.80 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.25.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 89.14. The currency pair seem to struggle in an attempt to break 91 mark. Well supported at 88.70 zone. The currency pair has made a tweezer top at 90.70. expect selling pressure to continue till the pair manages to close above 90 levels. The pair seem to have failed in its first attempt to break a flag formation. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 88.00 & 91.00. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 88.00 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 91.00 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair moved in a narrow range which is a kind of consolidation after the break-out from the downward sloping trend channel and moving in an upward channel. The pair has formed a bearish candle. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 102.36. The currency pair is facing strong resistance at 103.85 levels. Likely range would be 101.75-103.85 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 101.75 levels by buy GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 103.85 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 101.75 & 103.85 might see the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.38. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The crucial support at 22.20 is holding for now. The pair is expected to consolidate between 22.20 and 22.45. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.20.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4204. As expected the pair managed to break-out from crucial resistance at 2.4280 and hit a high of 2.4400 and closed at the break-out level. Expect 2.4000 to provide good support and can expect the buying interest on every decline. Expect a consolidation between 2.4000-2.4570. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4000 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4570.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.64. The pair posted a bearish candle. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.20-61.20.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.20 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buy CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.35. The currency pair is on its recovery path. The pair has a crucial support at 18.35 followed by 18.20 and resistance at 18.65. Expect the base of 18.20 to hold and favour a consolidation between 18.20-18.65. Any break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.20 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.65 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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