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  3. Currency Views for the Week 13 Feb – 17 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 13 Feb – 17 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

For the third consecutive week the pair saw constant buying interest and posted higher highs and higher lows. Till we see a daily close below 81.80, we can assume that the pair would continue the consolidation phase between 81.80 and 82.80. While things look favoring further up move, we may find sellers emerging around 82.80 which is closer to the steep trend line resistance. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.80 and 82.80. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The Foreign currency pair reacting and reversing after successful attempt of the top of the break-down trend line
  • Presently the correlation between DXY and USDINR is not active and the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 101-105,
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.80 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.51.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.09. Start of Feb we saw a good move breaking crucial resistance at 88.70 and posted a high of 90.47 closer to the expected target of ,2021 high of 90.70. There after the pair seem to have come under strong selling pressure and closed near the lows of the week. The Candles suggest further downside towards 83.50 over a period of 3 weeks. The final hope for recovery lies at 86.75. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-89.20. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk.

It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair took support at 98.90 and managed to close higher thereby making a bullish candle. There are fair chances that the currency pair re-tests 101 levels. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 99.44. The currency pair may continue to be under selling pressure on every spike till we see a daily close above 101. The pair is expected to consolidate between 98.70 & 101.40. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 98.70 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 101.40 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 98.70 & 101.40 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.46. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The pair has seen a reactive rally and attempting the trend line an upward sloping trend line starting Jan 22 which got breached a couple of weeks back. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.10 and 22.62. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.10.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4484. The weekly closing indicates a possible down move towards 2.4080. Expect a consolidation between 2.4080-2.4750. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4080 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4750.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.83. The pair made a high of 61.93 which was lower than the previous week yet made a bullish candle. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.10-62.20.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.20 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 19.02. As expected the MYRINR currency pair made a high of 19.45. As observed in the previous Blog, the pair posted a high and declined towards weekly low and close of 19.02. The daily charts suggest a reversal toward 18.70 before resuming the uptrend again. Expected range is 18.70-19.30. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.70 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 19.30 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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