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Currency Views for the Week 12 Sep – 16 Sep 2022-Venkat's Blog


The pair is moving in a narrow range. This week is crucial and we may see the pair attempt 79.10 levels. The downside also seems limited. If we see a few more sessions of failed attempt, we may see sellers emerging which may take the pair to 78.70. The risk of sharp move higher remains if the pair closes above 80.35. Only a close below 78.50 could negate this. Still there is some hope for a prolonged consolidation between 78.80 & 80.35 as we have seen during April-May 22. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. On a narrower range within the above would be 79.34-80.10. With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 79.35. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 79.77.


The bias appears to be changing and the indicators are turning positive, it observed that the 79.35 seem to provide decent support and the weekly has closed at higher levels. Current EURINR exchange rate is 80.33. We may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the outwards remittances buying EUR currency against INR around 79.80 on any sharp decline. Selling EUR against INR currency received through Inward remittances may be done on any spike towards 81.30 or higher. Expected range for the week 79.50-81.40. A daily close above 81.40 could quickly take the pair to 82.30.


After a sharp decline towards the end of August, we saw a consolidation in the previous week. Current week may see further consolidation with a higher base. For the past four months GBPINR currency pair has been moving in the range of 93.60 and 97.60. The pair is attempting to get back in to the same zone after declining to 91 levels. Ideal to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on upticks above 94 by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances. Current Rate is GBP= INR 92.65. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 91.50- 94.70. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.


The AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.55-21.75 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.55.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1914. After sharp decline for three weeks, last week saw a reactive pull back. The break down level of 2.2000 would continue to have selling interest and on the downside 2.1700 is expected to witness decent buying interest. The outward remittances can be any decline below 2.1800. Only a close above 2.20 can help the pair to see further upside. The chances of decline towards 2.1600 still open.


The currency pair CAD/INR broke the long term resistance of 61.10 and moved higher a couple of weeks back. However, it could not retain the momentum for a bigger gain and finally declined 60.70. Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 61.13. The range expected to be narrower in the current week in a band of 60.70-61.70. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 60.00 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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