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  3. Forex pair update for the week 12 to 16 June 2023

Forex pair update for the week 12 to 16 June 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a narrow range of 82.40-82.69. As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Only a close below 82.00 favors further lower levels. It appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.95 and 82.70. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.

A few more observations:

  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    This range is continuing to be protected
    Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.90 or lower if seen. Current currency exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.44.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.21. As expected the trend line supported at 87.70 held well and the currency pair managed to post a strong bullish candle. The currency pair is moving in a downward channel with support at 87.70 and resistance at 89.15. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 87.40 & 89.80. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 87.70 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.15 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is in a kind of consolidation mode with positive bias. It is moving in an upward channel. The pair has formed a bullish candle. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 103.61. Likely range would be 102.20-104.20 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 102.20 levels by buy GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 104.20 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 102.20 & 104.20 might see the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.45. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The crucial resistance at 22.65 is holding for now. The pair is expected to consolidate between 22.30 and 22.60. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this trend in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.30.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3820. The pair finds strong support around 2.3620 and regained past the crucial 2.3770. The pair had made a tweezer bottom and any decline is expected to be bought. Expect a consolidation between 2.3650-2.4000. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3650 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4000.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.77. The pair posted a bullish candle. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.20-62.45.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.45 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.86. The currency pair was moving in a downward sloping channel and as an unusual case it broke the support and had a deeper sell-off. The pair seems to be facing a tuff resistance at 18.00 Only a daily close above 18.00 would help the pair scale higher levels. Expect a consolidation between 17.55- 18.00 Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.55 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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