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  3. Currency Views for the Week 12 Dec – 16 Dec 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 12 Dec – 16 Dec 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair moved in a range of 81.20-82.76 during last week. Break above 81.80 which held for three weeks triggered sudden spike to next resistance at 82.75. While the monthly candle is still in progress, it appears that the pair may make one more attempt of the trend line resistance at 83.30. Deeper corrections cannot be expected till we see a close below 81.20. We can expect supply around the closer resistance at 81.80. We are witnessing demand driven by lower crude and outstanding unhedged exposure getting covered. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.20 and 83.20. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The long term trend line till at 83.10-83.30 levels holds for now and we are likely to see a consolidation between 79-82.
  • We may not see a runaway in DXY. The 105-106 range is yet another crucial price point and we may see further fall to 102.
  • The full impact of the correction has not yet been seen in USDINR currency pair.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-82.70.
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.20 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.41.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 86.77. The pair saw volatile moves. There is no looking back for the EURINR currency pair and it posted a high of 87.11. Downside risk seems limited till it closes below 85.30. We can expect a consolidation between 85.30-87.20. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. The run up has been too sharp and we need to expect the consolidation.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 85.30 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 87.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is gaining for the fifth consecutive week and continued to remain volatile. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.43. Decisive break of 98.30 makes the pair to remain biddish. The foreign currency pair may find strong resistance at 101.90. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 99.40 & 101.90. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 101.90 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 99.40 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 99.40-101.90 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.43. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.20 and 22.75. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 40 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.20. A daily close below 22,00 would make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3756. The currency pair has been consistently making higher price levels. A daily close below 2.3260 would be a sign of temporary pull back towards 2.2830. Expected range for the week is 2.3260-2.3950. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. Only a close below 2.2800 would be considered as reversal.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3260 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3950.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.70. The pair made one more failed attempt to break the barrier at 61.10. A daily close above 61.10 is required for higher levels. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.70-61.10.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.00 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

As expected the MYRINR currency pair moved higher and closed around the top of the range suggested in the previous blog. Current exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 18.69. Expected range for the week is 18.30-19.10. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.30. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.90 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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