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  3. Forex pair update for the week 11 to 15 September 2023

Forex pair update for the week 11 to 15 September 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a a sharp move past 83 and attempted 83.22. Every time the currency pair attempt above 83 the panic buttons are pressed. The earlier breach above 83.10 is still fresh in the minds, the buying interest continues as the market is still not sure of a decline below 82.20. It is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. At best we can presume that the range is gradually shifted higher between 82.50 and 83.30. Expect the range of 82.50-83.10 would continue to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.55 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 83.00.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 89.08. The Currency pair continues to be under selling pressure for the past 4 weeks. The currency pair moved in a smaller range with lower lows and lowers highs and posted a bearish candle. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 88.35 and may face resistance around 89.50. A daily close above 89.50 required for further gains. Below 89.00, we can see another round of selling towards 88.40. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 88.35 & 89.50. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances at current levels or on any slide towards 88.35 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair tool support of the ascending channel at 103.37 and attempted the resistance zone of 104.50 However, as noted in the previous report the good supply brought the pair closer to the lows of the week. Only a daily close above 105 can help the pair to gain further. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 103.45. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 103.10 & 104.50. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 104.50 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline towards 103.10. Any close outside the range of 103.10104.50 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.60 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.50 and 22.70, The pair runs a risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.70. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3277. The pair seem to be caught in a narrow range. The pair is at a crucial support zone. Breach below would see the pair testing the recent lows of 2.2950. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.2950 and 2.3550. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2950 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3550.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.84. The pair seem to be taking support at 60.70. The pair might face stiff resistance at 61.70 which is the ascending channel lower line. Since this level is evincing buying interest for the past 3 weeks, we can expect the pair to move higher. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.70-61.70. A daily close below 60.50 will drag the pair towards 59.85.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.84. As in the case of most of the currency pairs the MYRINR currency pair is also under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. Expected range for the week is 17.60-17.95. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.60. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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