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  3. Currency Views for the Week 10 Oct – 14 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 10 Oct – 14 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair continues to drift higher and there are no indications of a possible reversal The risk of huge break-out has been highlighted in every blog. Now 80s would appear to be a boon. The upside is still wide open with possible intermediary target at 83.30. Daily close above 83.00 opens the door for next round of sharper move towards 84.60. Expected range 80.90-84.60. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.In the Aug last weekly blog (29 Aug-03 Sep), the concerns of USDINR moving higher has been highlighted.With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 82.00. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.82.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 80.67. As expected the EURINR pair attempted higher levels in the past week. A daily close above 80.40 saw the pair quickly move to 81.40. We may safely assume that there are interests on both sides. We can expect a consolidation between 79.70 and 82.00. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 79.70 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 81.80 on any sharp spike. Expected range for the week 79.70-82.30.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has recovered major losses made in September and the current exchange rate of GBPINR is 91.80 which is the long term support. The pair posted a high of 93.56. The weekly candle is a bullish candle. While the downside risk still exists, we may not see such sharp fall. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 90.00 & 93.70. Daily close above 93.70 would see quick move to 94.70. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 93.70 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.it is good to wait for decline towards 90.00 for hedging outward remittances. Any close outside the range of 90.00-94.70 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 22.30-23.05 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 50 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 22.30.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2027. The currency pair seems to have reclaimed the break down level of 2.2000. The coming week would be crucial test for the capacity to hold on the price gain. We may see interest on both sides. The present scenario appears to hold the range of 2.1800- 2.2200. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1800. Only a close above 2.2200 can help the pair to see further upside.

CAD/INR

The currency pair CAD/INR made a strong come back and made a bullish candle. With this sharp move the base at the long term support of 59.80 levels would attract buying interest. The resistance at 60.90 is crucial and the currency pair is likely to witness interest on both sides and a daily close above 60.90 could see the pair move quickly to 61.50.Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 60.30. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.50-61.50. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 59.50 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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