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  3. Forex pair update for the week 10 to 14 July 2023

Forex pair update for the week 10 to 14 July 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a brief breach of 81.95 and tested a low of 81.75 and reacted quickly towards 82.75. As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Once again, the markets would be looking for lower levels to hedge imports. It appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach even 81.70 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 82.30 and 82.75. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30.
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    This range is continuing to be protected
    A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.90 or lower if seen. Current foreign exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.09.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 90.63. As expected the trend line supported at 89.00 held well and the currency pair managed to post a strongly bullish candle to reach its crucial resistance at 90.66. The Momentum is expected to remain intact and the pair may break the barrier in this attempt if we see a daily close above 90.70. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 89.50 & 91.50. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 89.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 91.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair is moving in an upward channel with support at 103/40 and top resistance at 106.20. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 106.03. The pair is well supported at 104.40 and has decisively broken the recent top of 105.25. Break above 106.30 would make the pair to attempt 107.20. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 104.60 &107.20. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 107.20 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 104.40 or lower if seen, A close outside the range of 104.40-107.20 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.49. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.35 and 22.60. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.35.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3502. The currency pair has reversed its trend and as noted in the previous blog, it has moved towards the first target of 2.3540. Expect the momentum to continue. Expected range for the week is 2.3375-2.3840. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3375 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3840.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 62.23. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.60. The pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 61.00 and resistance at 62.60. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.60-62.60. A breach on either side would trigger 40 pips in the direction of breach.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.60 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

The MYRINR currency pair has broken the steep downward sloping channel with top at 17.65. Current exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 17.67. Expected range for the week is 17.40-18.05. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.40. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here are personal for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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