• Customer Support: Mon-Fri 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM, Sat 8:00 AM to 6.00 PM
  • Branch Working Hrs: Mon-Fri 10:00 AM to 6:00 PM, Sat 10:00 AM to 6:00 PM
Request Call Back Live Rates
  1. Home
  2. Forex Views
  3. Forex pair update for the week 09 to 13 October 2023

Forex pair update for the week 09 to 13 October 2023

USD/INR

Past week witnessed repeat of the same narrow range by taking 83.15 as pivot moved 0.14 on either side. One more attempt of 83.30 and reversal is fairly a good sign for a small correction towards 82.75. Market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.50. At best we can presume that the range is gradually shifted higher between 82.90 and 83.30. Expect the range of 82.90-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.90 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 82.70-83.30.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 23. Are we in to another such move?
  • Monthly/Quarterly/Half yearly charts do not show significant signs of lower levels yet. Only a weekly close below 82.20 can help chances of lower levels.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.90 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 83.11.

EUR/INR

Current Exchange rate of EURINR currency pair is 87.98. The Currency pair finally finds a base at around 87 and has made a tweezer bottom and a hammer type formation and a green candle after 8 weeks. This reinforces the assumptions noted in the earlier blog that the support at 87.10 and 86.90 are fairly strong and expect to hold for a relief rally towards 89 levels. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 87.40 and may face resistance around 88.90. A daily close above 89.50 required for further gains. Below 89.00, we can see another round of selling towards 87.10. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 87.10 & 88.90. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on any slide towards 87.10 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.90 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair finally finds some ground to fight back. Though there would be selling pressure on every spike till we see a daily close above 103.50, we may witness a relief rally towards 104.30. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.72. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 101.30 & 104.30. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 104.30 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline below 101.30. Any close outside the range of 101.30-104.30 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.63 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.45 and 22.70, The pair runs a risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.70. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.45.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2495. The pair continues to be under selling pressure and could not hold the support of the lower BB at 2.2770 which is considered very negative. The currency pair is currently around the break-out level achieved during Oct 22. The hope now is that the Currency pair may find its support around 2.2240-2.2140 range which are crucial and the first one being the Descending channel lower support. We can expect a consolidation between 2.2240 & 2.2620.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2240 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.2620.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.82. After the failed attempt by the currency pair to get back in to the original channel, it came under strong selling pressure. The crucial level of 62.30 is likely to act as resistance and we can expect the selling pressure to continue till we see a daily close above this level. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.30-62.10. A daily close below 61.05 will drag the pair towards 60.30.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.10 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.62. The MYRINR currency pair is under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. Now 17.70 is acting as resistance and could drift lower towards 17.40. The current week is crucial for the pair. Only a daily close above 17.90 would help in higher levels. Expected range for the week is 17.40-17.90. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.40. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 17.90 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

Comments and Suggestions are welcome at [email protected]