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Currency Views for the Week 07 Nov – 11 Nov 2022-Venkat's Blog


The ensuing week may throw some light on the direction of the market. There seems some relief as the market finds some selling interest emerging close to 83. For now, we can assume that 83.20 as Intermediary top. We might be heading towards 82.10 and possibly see the pair drift towards 81.50. A daily close above 83.20 could trigger one more sharp move towards 84.10. Expected range 81.50-82.90. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. There exists one possibility that the pair makes one quick attempt of 81.10 on stop triggers. The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.35-83.60. The ensuing week would see increased volatility and wild swings.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 81.30. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.43.

A few more observations:

  • The currency pair trying to attempt the break-down levels in the reactive move
  • The correlation between DXY and USDINR is not currently active
  • though the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 101-105
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 80.90 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.51.


Current EURINR exchange rate is 81.63. The pair saw wild swings during the week and an attempt was made to bring it back inside the downward sloping trend line starting from Apr 21. Above 80.20, the pair is likely to stay at elevated levels. Downside risk seems limited till it closes below 80.40. As expected we are seeing a consolidation between 80.40-83.50. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. Daily close above 83.10 could trigger a sharp move towards 84.50.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 80.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 83.10 or higher if seen.


The GBPINR currency pair came under huge selling pressure and saw whipsaw moves in towards the end of the previous week. It almost lost all the gains made during the previous 2 weeks. The saving grace was that the currency pair recovered sharply part of the loses and closed at the current exchange rate of GBPINR is 93.23 which is below the falling trend line starting April 22. The weekly candle is a bearish candle. The pair is unable to breach the crucial resistance at 95.80. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 91.40 & 95.80. Daily close above 95.80 would see quick move to 97.70.

It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 95.50 levels by selling GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 92.00 or lower if seen.Any close outside the range of 91.40-95.80 might require re-assessment of risk.


The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.33. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the range seems shifted lower to 21.90-22.60, following correction in USD across the board. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 40 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.90 or closer to 22.00. A daily close below 22,35 is required to see a down move till 21.95.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1974. As expected the support at 2.1500 held and the currency pair is gradually picking up the lost ground and likely to attempt the break down level of 2.2000. It remains to be seen if the pair can regain the lost ground for an up move beyond 2.2000. The pair is expected to consolidate in a range of 2.1700- 2.2360. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target. Only a close above 2.2000 can help the pair to see further upside. The remittances are to be hedged accordingly.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.1700 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.2350.


For the past 2 weeks, the CAD/INR currency pair is seen consolidating in a narrow range of 60.10 -61.10. The pair also seems to have come back on track with the base at 59.30 levels holding well. The range appears to have shifted higher to 60.30-61.50. We have been witnessing alternate week of bullish and bearish candle suggesting interest on either side. Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 60.80. A daily close above 61.10 required for higher levels. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.30-61.50.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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