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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 07 to 11 Aug 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 07 to 11 Aug 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw continued buying interest and the pair hit the high of 82.89 and cooled-off to close at 82.65. As has been continuously highlighted in the previous Blogs, it is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Markets are confused on the logic of this magic numbers 81.70 & 83.00. This time around the pair is at a crucial juncture and the weekly charts show signs of potential breach on the upside if the pair stays above 82.95 on closing basis which may trigger a spike towards 83.25. Expect the range of 82.15-83.20 to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue if we do not see a close below 81.70.
  • A decisive week ahead. We are close to the Top of the Triangle/Rectangle and the Oscillators in the weekly charts show indications of higher levels.
  • The narrowing of the Bollinger Bands suggest we can expect sharp moves sooner. 85+ or 80- is a strange puzzle.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.15 or lower if seen. Current currency exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.74.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 91.09. The Currency pair found perfect support at the lower end of the channel at 90.24 and bounced back to attempt 91.34 and closed at 91.04. The currency pair posted a bullish candle. For the ensuing week, the pair may find good support at the lower end of the channel at 90.40 and may face resistance around the midpoint of the channel at 91.80 and subsequently at the top of the channel at the previous high of 92.46. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 90.40 & 92.40. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 90.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 91.70 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has come under selling pressure during the week. However, it recovered and has closed closer to the top of the range. It finds support at the lower end of the channel and has hurdle at 106. Once we see a daily close above 106 we may see another attempt of the previous high. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 105.38. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 104.30 & 107.10. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 107.10 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 104.40 or lower if seen. Any close outside the range of 104.40-107.10 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.58. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.40 and 22.65. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.40. A daily close above 22,65 would make the pair vulnerable for further spike towards 22.90.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3830. The pair is into a consolidation move. The pair has made a near tweezer bottom around 2.3650 and the expected range for the week is 2.3650-2.4050. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3650 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4050.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.81. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.50. The pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 61.50 and resistance at 63.05. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.50-61.50.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

The MYRINR currency pair attempted to break the resistance at 18.20. Current exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 18.14. Any retracement will be treated as opportunity to buy. Expected range for the week is 17.95-18.40. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.95. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.40 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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