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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 06 to 10th March 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 06 to 10th March 2023

USD/INR

As noted in the previous blogs the supply improved closer to 83 mark and the pair saw an unexpected deeper correction after 4-5 weeks of continuous buying interest. Also that the target of 81.80 achieved and even the pair has seen even lower levels. Now the question is on what next and where from here. Since the [pair has closed below the critical 81.80 levels, the next crucial level to look for would be 81.25. We may see a pullback if we do not see a daily close below 81.20. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 80.90 and 82.20. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. If the momentum continues we may see the pair drifting towards 79.90.

A few more observations:

  • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
  • Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105. However, there may not be major impact seen on the pre-existing range
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another out of spike towards 85.70. At least for now the zone is protected
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 80.90 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.68.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 86.84. The pair is finding it difficult to breach crucial resistance at 88.60. The pair has been moving in the range of 86.60 and 88.60 for the past 12 weeks. The weekly candle is showing negative bias. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. Any breach of the support at 86.50 would see the pair drift towards 85.60.

It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 85.60 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair has been moving in a downward sloping trend channel for the past 12 weeks and closed at the lower end of the channel. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 98.34. The currency pair may continue to be under selling pressure on every spike till we see a daily close above 101. The pair is expected to consolidate between 97.10 & 100.10 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 97.10 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 100.10 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 97.20 & 100.10 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.24. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The pair has started reversing as it could not breach key resistance at 22.60 For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.95 and 22.45. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.00.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3662 after testing a low of 2.3353. The currency pair was under selling pressure for the past 5 weeks. It briefly penetrated the break-out level of 2.3350. The pair may see continued selling pressure on every spike till we see a close above 2.4210. Expect a consolidation between 2.3475-2.4210. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3475 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4210.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.10. As expected the breach of 60.70 saw the pair drift towards 60.20. The pair posted another bearish candle. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 59.75-60.70.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 60.70 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.23. The pair is still facing strong selling pressure and the next crucial level to watch would be 18.60 from where the pair made a new high of 19.45. Expect the base of 18.10 to hold and favour a consolidation between. Expected range is 18.10-18.70. Any break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.10 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.70 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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