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  3. Currency Views for the Week 06 Feb – 10 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

Currency Views for the Week 06 Feb – 10 Feb 2023-Venkat's Blog

USD/INR

The pair took support at 81.45 and saw constant buying interest. As observed in the previous blog daily close above 81.75 made the pair attempt the steep trend line with a high as well as close of 82.43. While things look favoring further up move, we may find sellers emerging around 82.55 and then at 82.80 which is closer to the steep trend line resistance. Most likely scenario would be a consolidation between 81.35 and 82.80. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The currency pair trying to attempt the break-down levels in the reactive move
  • though the Dollar Index-DXY is likely to hover in the familiar range of 101-105, the correlation between DXY and USDINR is not currently active
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 80.10-83.10
  • The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.35 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.20.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 88.70. During the past week it actually penetrated the strong resistance at 88.70 and posted a high of 90.47 closer to the expected target of ,2021 high of 90.70. The pair seem to have come under strong selling pressure and closed near the lows of the week. As long as the pair sustains and manages daily close above 88.70 we may see one more attempt of higher levels. A break below 87.40 on closing basis could make the pair drift lower towards 86.50. Ensuing week is crucial for the pair to sustain the higher levels or give way for a correction/consolidation phase. We can expect a consolidation between 86.50-89.70. Any breach on either side on a daily closing basis would require re-assessment of risk. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 86.50 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 89.70 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair managed to post a high of 101.84. However, it could not sustain the higher levels and the selling pressure brought the pair back to 98.97 which is the low of the week thereby making a bearish candle. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 98.97. The currency pair may continue to be under selling pressure on every spike till we see a daily close above 101. The pair is expected to consolidate between 97.70 & 100.70. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 97.70 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 100.70 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 97.70 & 100.70 might drag the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.38. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The Foreign currency pair has seen a reactive rally and attempting the trend line an upward sloping trend line starting Jan 22 which was breached a couple of weeks back. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.10 and 22.62. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.10. A daily close below 21,90 is expected to make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.50.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4605. The currency pair made another high of 2.5092 and retracted due to selling pressure as noted in our earlier blog. The weekly closing indicates a possible down move towards 2.4250. Expect a consolidation between 2.4250-2.4850. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.4250 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4850.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.30. The pair made a high of 62.05 and made a bullish candle. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.90-62.10.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.10 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 19.29. As expected the MYRINR currency pair made a high of 19.37. The formation is a flag and the break signifies appreciation towards 19.50. However, the daily charts suggest a reversal toward 18.85 before resuming the uptrend again. Expected range is 18.85-19.80. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.85 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 19.50 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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