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Currency Views for the Week 05 Sep – 09 Sep 2022-Venkat's Blog


The pair is not giving up the 79 levels which is a cause of concern. Last week saw one quick move towards 79.28 and the very next day it recovered to close at 79.72. If we see another two weeks of consolidation below 80.30 we may see sellers emerging which may take the pair to 78.70. Any daily close above 80.35 would trigger one more sharp move towards 81.50. Only a close below 78.50 could negate this. Still there is some hope for a prolonged consolidation between 79.10 & 80.35 as we have seen during April-May 22. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target. With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline below 79.30. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 79.72.


Considering the broad USD strength, EUR INR currency pair likely to take some more time to recover. The bias seems to favour downside. Has been constantly declining from April top of 90.92. Though the indicators are turning positive, it observed that the upside appears to be capped at-81.40 and the support comes in at around 78.50 and then at 78.20. Current EURINR exchange rate is 79.26. We may see sharp moves on either side. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the outwards remittances buying EUR currency against INR below 78.70 on any sharp decline. Selling EUR against INR currency received through Inward remittances may be done on any spike towards 80.50 or higher. Expected range for the week 78.20-81.40. A daily close above 81.40 could quickly take the pair to 82.30.


Last we saw a sharp decline GBP INR currency pair. For the past four months GBPINR currency pair has been moving in the range of 93.60 and 97.60. Last week the closing had been at the lower end of the range which is a cause of concern. As expected the GBPINR currency pair declined faster on break of crucial support at 93.10. Ideal to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on upticks above 93 by selling GBP currency against INR. With a declining scenario it is good to wait for decline for hedging outward remittances. Current Rate is GBP= INR 91.40. Expect the same trend to continue till we see a break on either side of the range of 89.40- 93.50. Any close outside the range might require re-assessment of risk.


The AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.55-22.15 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.55.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1734. During the previous week the Pair got sold-off till 2.1586 and closed at 2.1734. The support at 2.1530 is crucial for any chance of recovery. A daily close below 2.1500 would see further decline towards 2.1300. The outward remittances can be any decline below 2.1500. Only a close above 2.20 can help the pair to see further upside. Gradually this currency pair is higher volatility.


The currency pair CAD/INR broke the long term resistance of 61.10 and moved higher a couple of weeks back. However, it could not retain the momentum for a bigger gain. Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 60.70. Expected range for the week 59.70-61.70. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 60.00 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top side of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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