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  3. Forex pair update for the week 04 to 08 September 2023

Forex pair update for the week 04 to 08 September 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a slow grinding in a narrow range between 82.53 & 82.80. Previous week’s decline was short lived as the market witnessed continued buying interest at lower levels. The earlier breach above 83.10 is still fresh in the minds, the buying interest continues as the market is still not sure of a decline below 82.20. It is evident from the market action that the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. Expect the range of 82.20-82.90 would continue to hold for the week and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 82.20-82.90.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • We have been witnessing depreciation for the past 12 years starting 2011 with exception of 2017. We are in the ninth month. Will is be another 2017 or as always is puzzle.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.20 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 82.68.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 89.08. The Currency pair tried attempting the ascending channel at 90.60. However, it could not make further gains and hence came under continued selling pressure. The currency pair moved in almost the same range as that of the previous week and posted a bearish candle. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 89.00 and may face resistance around 90.50. Below 89.00 we can see another round of selling towards 88.40. It would be difficult for the pair to expect higher levels till it closes above 91.10. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 89.00 & 90.50. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances at current levels or on any slide towards 88.40 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 90.50 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR currency pair tool support of the ascending channel at 103.80 and attempted the resistance zone of 105. However, as noted in the previous report the good supply brought the pair closer to the lows of the week. Only a daily close above 105 can help the pair to gain further. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 104.08. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 103.80 & 105.20. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 105.20 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline towards 102.70. Any close outside the range of 103.8-105.20 might require re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.54. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.35 and 22.70, The earlier resistance at 22.65-70 region gets activated again after the fall during the past week. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.35.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3585. The pair seem to be caught in a narrow range. Though the pair made lower lows and lower highs, it finished with a positive candle and expected to consolidate at higher levels to keep up the gains. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.3320 and 2.3770. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3320 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3770.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.81. After 4 weeks of decline, the pair seem to be taking support at 60.70. The pair might face stiff resistance at 61.70 which is the ascending channel lower line. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.50-61.50. A daily close below 60.50 will drag the pair towards 59.85.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.50 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.83. As in the case of most of the currency pairs the MYRINR currency pair is also under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. Expected range for the week is 17.60-17.95. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.60. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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