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Currency Views for the Week 03 Oct – 07 Oct 2022-Venkat's Blog


The pair though appears to have made a temporary peak around 81.95, there are no indication yet for a Now 80+ becomes a new normal. We may see buying interest for the unhedged imports. A daily close below 80.95 may give a chance towards 80.35. The upside is still wide open. Daily close above 81.80 opens the door for next round of sharper move towards 83.00. Expected range 80.65-83.00. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on any at the current levels or on decline towards 81. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 81.50.


As expected the EURINR pair made a sharp move down towards the lower end of the expected 77.90 and quickly recovered to post a positive candle. With this move there are chances that the pair may attempt higher levels in the coming week. Current EURINR exchange rate is 79.87. We may safely assume that there are interests on both sides. We can expect a consolidation between 79.00 and 80.00. It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book the any outward remittances on slide towards 80 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 80.10 on any sharp spike.Expected range for the week 78.80-80.30. A daily close above 80.40 could quickly take the pair to 81.30. Similarly, the downside support at 78.80 to be watched for possible breach.


The GBPINR currency pair has come under strong selling pressure and break below the long term support at 91.70. The GBPINR currency pair posted a sharp decline from 88.00 to 84.00 in a swift move drawing similarity with the sharp fall of April 2020. However, the pair recovered sharply towards the end of the week to cast a solid bullish candle. While the downside risk still exists, we may not see such sharp fall. Most likely scenario could be a consolidation between 88.50 & 92.70. Daily close above 91.70 would see quick move to 92.70.It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 92.50 levels by selling GBP currency against INR. it is good to wait for decline towards 88.50 for hedging outward remittances. Current Rate is GBP= INR 90.96. Any close outside the range of 88.50-92.70 might require re-assessment of risk.


The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair flows the USDINR moves. For now, the range appears to have shifted to 21.90-22.50 following USD strength. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 50 pips range. Technically the oscillators appear to be showing mixed signals. Since USDINR pair is expected to move higher, the outward remittances may be hedged and any decline towards 21.90.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.1510. The break down level of 2.2000 would continue to have selling interest and has been a two way move during the past week and closed a tad lower than that of the previous week. The present scenario appears to hold the range of 2.1300- 2.1800. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline below 2.1500. Only a close above 2.20 can help the pair to see further upside.


The currency pair CAD/INR broke another long term support at 59.80 levels. As expected the breach had made the pair to drift towards 59.30. The resistance at 60.50 is crucial and the currency pair is likely to be sold-off on any attempt higher till we see a daily close above 60.50.Current Exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 59.04. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 58.20-60.50. With this back drop its wiser to hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency against INR on any decline closer to 58.50 or lower and hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency on a spike closer to the top of the range or higher if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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