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Forex pair update for the week 03 to 07 July 2023


Past week saw a very narrow range of 82.10-81.94.As observed in the previous blog the declines are used as opportunity to hedge the Imports. A close below 82.00 favors further lower levels provided 81.95 is breached on a daily closing basis.. The currency pair is at a crucial support. It appears that the pair seems to be in no mood to breach even 81.90 on a closing basis. In such scenario we may expect a consolidation between 81.95 and 82.45. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30.
  • Neither the moves in Dollar Index-DXY nor the equity have direct correlation.
  • The currency pair seems to be trying to make one more attempt towards 83.
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    This range is continuing to be protected.
    Unlike in the past, the Imports (mainly the oil) are being hedged as and when there are lower prices in Oil and/or lower prices in the currency pair.
    A deeper correction is long overdue. Market is expecting 81.70-83.10 will be protected. If appears that the same kind of yo-yo moves may continue till one more quarter if we do not see a close below 81.70.

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.90 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.09.


Current EURINR exchange rate is 86.77. As expected the trend line supported at 88.90held well and the currency pair managed to post a strong bullish candle. The currency pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 89.00 and resistance at 90.60. Expect good support at 89 for re-test of recent high of 90.77 and possibly 91.20. Expected to continue the consolidation phase between 89.00 & 90.70. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 89.00 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 90.70 or higher if seen.


The GBPINR currency pair is moving in an upward channel with support at 102/80 and top resistance at 104.80. The current foreign exchange rate of GBPINR is 104.28. The pair is well supported at 103.70 and seems to make an attempt to break the recent top of 105.25. Decisive break of 105.25 would make the pair to to attempt 106.35. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 103.70 &106.35. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 106.35 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances on any decline towards 103.70 or lower if seen.Any close outside the range of 103.70-106.35 might require re-assessment of risk.


The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.35. The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.25 and 22.45. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.25. A daily close below 22,25 would make the pair vulnerable for further decline towards 21.90.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.3262. The currency pair has been under considerable selling pressure for the past 3 weeks. The candle appears to be a hammer which requires a confirmation. The pair might attempt a pull back towards 2.3540. Expected range for the week is 2.3160-2.3450. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3160 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3450.


The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 62.00. The pair seem to have strong barrier at 62.50. It reversed the direction to make a red candle after 3 weeks of green candles. The pair continues to move in an upward channel with support at 60.87 and resistance at 62.50. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 61.30-62.30.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.30 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.


The MYRINR currency pair is moving in a steep downward sloping channel with top at 17.80 and support at 17.20. Current exchange rate of CADINR currency pair is 17.57. Expected range for the week is 17.30-17.80. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.30.This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 17.80 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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