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  3. Forex pair analysis for the week 03 to 07 April 2023

Forex pair analysis for the week 03 to 07 April 2023

USD/INR

Past week saw a narrow range of 82.04-82.48. The Monthly candle still shows a bearish candle. We need to see a daily close below 81.70 for further lower levels. The currency shows extraordinary resilience and refusing to move below 82. There is not much change in the earlier observations of the likely scenario which would be a consolidation between 81.70 and 83.10. There could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • The currency corrected after making multiple attempts to break 83
  • Dollar Index-DXY is likely to continue the familiar range of 101-105.
  • The raising upward channel indicate the broader range of 77.10-83.30
  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
    The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70.
    This range is continuing to be protected
    The increased volatility and wild swings likely to continue

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 81.70 or lower if seen. Current exchange rate of USD/INR is 82.16.

EUR/INR

Current EURINR exchange rate is 89.13. After the break of crucial resistance at 87.80 during the earlier week, the currency pair managed to hold on to the gains well supported at 88.50 zone. However, further gains were muted and the pair made an inside candle. Likely to undergo consolidation phase between 87.80 & 90.20. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

It is prudent to look for key levels to hedge the risk. From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on slide towards 87.80 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 90.20 or higher if seen.

GBP/INR

The GBPINR foreign currency pair broke the downward sloping trend channel after nearly 14 weeks. It made an attempt towards 102 for the second time closed at 101.32. The pair has formed a bullish candle. Current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.32. The currency pair is facing strong resistance at 102.10 levels. The pair is expected to break this barrier and head north. Likely range would be 99.10-103.10 with choppy moves on either side. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge outward remittances on any slide towards 99.20 levels by buying GBP currency against INR. it is desirable to hedge inward remittances on any spike to 103 or higher levels if seen.

Any close outside the range of 99.10 & 103.10 might see the pair by at least 100 pips in the direction of breach and there would be a need for re-assessment of risk.

AED/INR

The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.37. AEDINR pair mirrors the USDINR moves. The pair had a correction towards 22.33 which is a crucial support. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 21.20 and 22.75. We may have to watch for breach on either side for a new 30 pips range.

With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 21.20.

THB/INR

The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.4016. The pull back is met with selling pressure. This week could witness a continuation of the consolidation phase. Expect the break-out level of 2.3700 to provide good support and we can expect the buying interest on every decline. Expect a consolidation between 2.3700-2.4240. Only a break on either side would decide the direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.3700 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.4240.

CAD/INR

The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 60.78. The pair posted a bullish candle. As expected the pair gained further towards 60.70. The pair has a characteristic of making alternate Green and Red candles. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.25-61.25.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 61.250 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.

MYR/INR

Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 18.60. The pair faces resistance at 18.90. Expect the base of 18.20 to hold and favour a consolidation between 18.20-18.90. Any break on either side would decide the direction and target. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 18.20 or lower if seen. Also suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.90 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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