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Forex pair update for the week 02 to 06 October 2023


Past week saw a narrow range by taking 83.10 as pivot moved 0.17 on either side. One more attempt of 83.27 and reversal is fairly a good sign for a small correction towards 82.75. Market is no mood to believe decline towards even 82.50. At best we can presume that the range is gradually shifted higher between 82.70 and 83.30. Expect the range of 82.70-83.30 would continue to hold for the week with a crucial support at 82.70 and there could be choppy moves within this range. A close outside this range requires re-assessment of risk/direction and target.

A few more observations:

  • As noted in the previous blog, continue to keep the following input for quick reference.
  • The 82.75-83.25(with error adjustments) zone is the Fib projection of July 2011 to July 2013. Alternatively, the Fib projection of the move from Jan 22(Low) to Oct 22(High) and Nov 22 low also suggest the projection as 82.92. Hence, the importance. If breached, we may see another spike towards 85.70. With last week’s move we are back in the same trading range of 82.50-83.30.
  • On analyzing the quarterly and half yearly charts, the risk on the higher side is till 85.70 followed by 86.10 which is the channel top and the down side is 77.70.
  • Incidentally, the big move from 80 to 83 happened during third week of Sep 22 to first week of Oct 23. Are we in to another such move?

With this back drop it would be preferable to hedge the outward remittances on decline towards 82.75 or lower if seen. Current foreign currency rate of USD/INR is 83.05.


Current EURINR exchange rate is 87.95. The Currency pair continues to be under selling pressure for the past 8 weeks. Every attempt towards higher levels is being sold-off and posted a bearish candle. The support at 87.10 and 86.90 are fairly strong and expect to hold for a relief rally towards 89 levels. For the ensuing week, the pair may find support at 86.90 and may face resistance around 88.90. A daily close above 89.50 required for further gains. Below 89.00, we can see another round of selling towards 87.10. Expected to undergo consolidation phase between 87.10 & 88.90. Any breach of the range would lead to 100 pips move.

From a remittance perspective it would be prudent to book any outward remittances on any slide towards 87.10 levels and the inward remittances by selling EUR currency against INR around 88.90 or higher if seen.


The GBPINR currency pair continues to be under selling pressure and could not hold the support of the ascending channel at 102.55 Till we see a daily close above 103.50 we will be witnessing selling on any spike. The current exchange rate of GBPINR is 101.51. The currency pair is expected to move in a range of 99.30 & 103.50. It may be prudent to liquidate/hedge inward remittances on any upticks towards 102.70 levels by selling GBP currency against INR.

it is desirable to hedge outward remittances at current levels or on any decline below 100.00. Any close outside the range of 99.30-103.50 might require re-assessment of risk.


The current exchange rate of AEDINR is 22.61 The AED being pegged currency, AEDINR pair follows the USDINR moves. For now, the pair is expected to consolidate between 22.45 and 22.70, The pair runs a risk of breach of crucial resistance at 22.70. With this theme in mind the outward remittances may be hedged at the current levels or on any decline towards 22.45.


The current Exchange rate of THB currency against INR is at 2.2757. The pair continues to be under selling pressure and could not hold the support of the lower BB at 2.2770 and has a resistance at 2.3180. As expected the pair tested the recent lows of 2.2950 and even 2.2880. The pair is expected consolidate between 2.2750 and 2.3180. Any close outside the range to be assessed a fresh for direction and target.

The outward remittances can be hedged on any decline towards 2.2750 or lower if seen and inward remittances on any spike towards 2.3180.


The current exchange rate of CAD/INR currency pair is 61.52. The pair attempted to get back in to the original channel. However, as a classic case it failed to hold on and got sold-off. The crucial level of 62.30 is likely to act as resistance and we can expect the selling pressure to continue till we see a daily close above this level. The range expected for the current week is in a band of 60.70-62.10. A daily close below 61.05 will drag the pair towards 60.70.

With this back drop its wiser to hedge the inward remittances by selling CAD currency against INR on any spike closer to 62.10 or above and hedge the outward remittances by buying CAD currency on any decline closer to the lower end of the range.


Current exchange rate of MYRINR currency pair is 17.69. The MYRINR currency pair is under continued selling pressure after failed attempts to break the resistance at 18.20. As expected the pair broke the support at 17.70 held for the past 5 weeks and attempted a drift lower towards 17.40. The current week is crucial for the pair. Only a daily close above 18.00 would help in higher levels. Expected range for the week is 17.40-17.95. Preferable to hedge the commitments of outwards remittances on any decline towards 17.40. This currency pair is known for its characteristic move of alternate bullish and bearish candles. Hence, suggested to hedge the inward remittance close to 18.00 or higher levels if seen.

Disclaimer: The views expressed here by author are his personal views for learning and reference purpose only. Orient Exchange does not take responsibility for the views expressed.

Author Name: Mr.Venkata Raman

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